Thursday, May 22, 2008

Fuzzy Math 101 by Senator Clinton

It would appear that after Senator Clinton’s big win in West Virginia a week ago that she’d made a net gain of 7 pledged delegates but by week’s end that had resulted in a net loss of 5 delegates as the superdelegates began to break hard for Senator Obama. Coming into the Oregon / Kentucky races which occurred yesterday it had only gotten worse with some 30 super delegates having come out for Senator Obama as well as many prominent long time Democratic Party supporters who weren’t superdelegates but Senator Clinton persevered and pledged to fight on saying every vote should count equally and that she was determined to ensure that the people of every state and territory had their voices heard and votes cast. Most pundits began to admire her metal and true grit in the face of the obvious, which was that she was going to lose this battle.
She also began testing out a couple of new tag lines, the first of which went something like neither Senator Obama nor I will reach the magic number of 2209 (instead of the currently accepted 2025) to lock up this nomination which was an obvious reference to the full inclusion of the delegates from the states of Florida and Michigan and an obvious hint to the rules committee who will meet on 31 May to try and resolve the dispute while the second line was that more people had actually voted for her than for her opponent during this primary race. How did she get there…well first she again included Florida and more stunningly Michigan where Senator Obama’s name wasn’t even on the ballet but then she went brazenly forward by not including caucus states. I’m really not sure how you can rail on about counting all votes equally but ignore a whole bunch of states entirely just because they favored your opponent. Both of these tag lines have failed to ignite the intended audience of superdelegates as they continued to trickle towards Senator Obama but the writers in the main stream media continued to applaud her determination to fight on and use every possible argument to win the day.
This past Tuesday we had another split decision and again according to early results posted on CNN Senator Clinton will receive a net increase in pledged delegates to the tune of roughly 9. Does this mean a repeat of last week’s outcome where superdelegates will again move towards Senator Obama who also reached a so called milestone of his own in that he has now received the support of more than half of all the currently allowed pledged delegates available based on his total number and the total number available excluding Florida and Michigan. This is a false milestone but in the face of the numerous and strange way’s that Senator Clinton keeps trying to convince us that she’s somehow winning I suppose it was inevitable.
Adding to last week’s tag lines Senator Clinton has also done some creative math with the Electoral College map and determined that based on the states she’s won (again and always including Florida and Michigan) she would receive 300 Electoral College votes in a general election while Senator Obama would only receive 217. Now this is truly some fuzzy math in that Senator Clinton is including several states that are and will almost always be Republican territory, like Texas for example and ignoring the obvious fact that regardless of which of them is nominated by the Democratic Party they would most likely win both New York and California.
Let’s total this up and see what we get using real math vice the Professor Clinton version of fuzzy math 101.
· Total pledged delegates won – Senator Obama
· Total states and territory’s won – Senator Obama
· Superdelegates pledged – Senator Obama
· Total popular vote in states and territory’s where both Senator’s Clinton and Obama’s name appeared on the ballot – Senator Obama
Anyway you add it up, the sum comes out the same, and Senator Obama is the more deserving of the two final candidates to receive the Democratic nomination to run in a general election for the Presidency of the United States of America.
I believe that Senator Clinton should stay in the race until the final primary has been held on 3 June and after the final results are issued and all of the above questions have the same answer then she should immediately suspend her campaign and without hesitation support Senator Obama. If she does not and decides to take this fight to the convention she will not only hinder the party’s chances in the fall but hinder her chances in the future should Senator Obama fail to win in November. Any attempt to hang on past the final primary will have gone well beyond showing strength of character and determination and will have become a willful suspension of disbelief to quote a famous Senator but then again Senator Clinton has showed us repeatedly that she’s capable of using fuzzy math to achieve the sum she wishes to achieve so stand by for the next twist or wait it’s already here, she’s a victim of sexism but that’s another story.


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