Sunday, March 02, 2008

Only in Hill-Billy Land

When I woke up on Friday morning (about 11 PM EST time Thursday as I’m in Africa) I got to thinking about an article that I was reading the night before that was rehashing the various statements made by the Clinton campaign about the necessity to win in both Ohio and Texas in order to regain the momentum lost since Super Tuesday. As I read them quoting senior staffers and even the ex-President himself I began to think that sometime during the weekend, Hillary would have a choke up moment and would spend Sunday and Monday talking about the soft stuff like her long fight against the “right wing conspiracy” and how tough it is for a woman to break through that final “glass ceiling” and as reality set in and the polls began to really show that she would definitely lose in Texas, possibly eke out a slim margin win in Ohio, lose Vermont and win Rhode Island that the staffers would begin to talk more about stemming the Obama momentum and holding him, which would allow her to regain the momentum in Pennsylvania. For a group who’s truly blown a major lead to a rookie candidate whose name could barely be pronounced a year ago it always seems amazing to me how good they are at preparing for and recovering from defeat.
Mind you in Hill-Billy land anything is possible and sure enough I was too lazy to post up my thoughts on the matter so I can’t take any credit for getting out ahead of the story I read just before heading to bed late Friday night or early Friday afternoon in the States that went over a statement issued by the campaign that claimed that since Obama had seriously outspent the Hill-Billy campaign in both Texas and Ohio if he didn’t win by wide margins in both states then there was something seriously wrong with his campaign…huh?
I swear that Homer Simpson is the chief strategist for the Hill-Billy camp since nobody could actually believe that nonsense could they? Is it just me or are Hill-Billy setting up a scenario whereby anything other than a massive defeat will somehow be portrayed as a win and allow the Hill-Billy show to continue on?
I’m stuck in a remote desert camp with no Internet (It’s Saturday morning EST as I write this) and by the time I’m able to post this it will be Sunday afternoon EST so here’s my predictions for the next four states and I’m promise not to peak at the polls on Sunday and make any changes but you’ll just have to trust me on that one:
Texas-Obama + 8 Ohio-Clinton + 2 Rhode Island-Clinton + 4 Vermont-Obama + 7
So with these four so-called crucial states out of the way we’ll be exactly where we are today, having spit the two big states and split the two small states.
Now my predictions for the Hill-Billy speech on Tuesday night:
Ignore the states you lost, claim come-back kid status and vow to fight to include every vote as they should have done in Florida in 2000. It’s a not so subtle hint at the real Hill-Billy strategy and that is to fight till the end and continue to split states, she’ll win at least four or five while he’ll definitely pick up at least two more and then demand that Michigan and Florida are seated which will put her virtually in a tie with Obama and then you’ll see the real Hill-Billy show heavy on the Billy half as the arm twisting of Super Delegates will swing into action big time. At the end of it all, if Obama can’t finish her with a surprise last minute surge in Ohio he’ll lose, only a win in both the big states will put pressure on Hill-Billy land to fold up the tent until 2012 assuming Obama tanks under the spot light of a national campaign and even then unless there are 10 point margins in both states it will be a toss-up as to what the campaign does. Hill-Billy won’t go quietly.
I look forward to waking up on Wednesday morning to see the results and even more so on Thursday to see the fall out…will I be right? When you try and predict what will go on in that fantasy world of Hill-Billy land it’s like trying to predict the outcome of a NASCAR race before the checkered flag waves…you know the strengths and weaknesses of all the drivers and cars but when the green flag is waved and racing begins anything can happen and anyone can win.
Good luck Hill-Billy the republicans are cheering for you to go all the way.


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