When Presidents Get Idealistic in the Middle East

Hillary Clinton was right, when during the primaries she featured the ad that about an emergency call in the middle of the night and asked if the guy answering would have the experience to make the right decisions. When a candidate runs for office they most often compare themselves to the sitting President and say one of two things, I’m going to be my own man but not make major changes or they say, this guy is taking us down the wrong path and I’ll change things, yet these initiatives rarely if ever are what a President is remembered for and it’s even rarer that a candidate has been able to avoid the early morning call or even guess what that call might be about. Sure they all say I’ll do this differently with this regime (insert any current or ongoing pain in the butt country here). If we are talking to them the candidate says I’m going to get tough on them and if we’re being tough on them and not talking or continuing to seek more sanctions the candidate says we need to use dialogue to achieve our foreign policies goals.

George W. Bush’s speeches during his primary run and then as the nominee show us a man very focused on domestic issues. When it comes to foreign policy some of his initiatives were to be ending the idea of nation building and getting out of Bosnia and Kosovo...why because President Clinton had US forces there long after combat operations ended and the US military wasn’t built for nation building. He also proposed a review of the US force levels in South Korea suggesting that we could cut more than half of the 50,000 troops and instead station troops in less expensive Japan and reinforce if necessary but really he wanted to turn over the task of protecting South Korea to South Korea, he also proposed cutting the European command to less than 100,000 troops centred on fewer bases and if possible down to less than 50,000 troops in all of Europe by the end of his first term. The savings would be used to replace the military’s heavy equipment designed for the cold war and to pay the troops more. All good stuff and none of it happened because on a bright fall day a group never once mentioned by either candidate (even though the very group attacked US targets 5 times during the 2 Clinton terms) during the 2000 election attacked the US. Bush’s Presidency changed in a heartbeat as his fathers had when Iraq invaded Kuwait.

President Carter didn’t like autocratic leaders who wouldn’t help their citizens, he demanded better of the government he told its leader that without reform the US could not and should not support him and then President Carter cut off aid to that country. Roughly a year later an unknown Mullah came to power and ordered his followers to take over the US Embassy. After decades of friendship Iran became the enemy of the United States and still is.

President Obama needs to look hard at Middle Eastern history and that of Africa. While we’d like to believe that when young people take to the streets asking for more freedom, what comes of it most often is more repression and more chaos. I would truly wonder what a young Pakistani would say about his country today. Is he happier under President Asif Ali Zardari than he was under General Pervez Musharraf? If President Bush had resisted the urge to tie aid to reform and forced General Musharraf to agree to step down as the head of the military and then pressured him to leave office would Benazir Bhutto still be alive, would the Taliban not have been increasing ignored while Musharraf ensured he wasn’t going to be overthrown in coup and let the Generals off the hook in going after the hard core AQ and Taliban elements living in his country in exchange for their support?

Today we see Cairo in flames and we’re shocked, we see young people in the thousands risking and losing their lives to say we want more freedom and that the government have allowed the police to go too far. They are increasingly corrupt and brutal in the way they ensure bribes are paid. In fact what is really going on is a reaction to the corruption reaching a tipping point. The police and local government officials have gone too far in their demands for bribes and as in Alexandra, the main police station was the primary target for those who complained of beatings when bribes weren’t or couldn’t be paid by business people and average citizens but and it’s a huge but, what is truly waiting to replace Hosni Mubarak, is it the Nobel Peace winner or is it the official opposition party, the Muslim brotherhood? President Bush learned a harsh lesson when he called for fair and free elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip thinking the Palestinians would support the moderate candidates that wanted peace with Israel, he bet on freedom and what he got was Hamas and more rockets being fired at Israel and elected opposition Fatah members running for their lives back to the West Bank. It’s hard to walk back from we trust the people unless the people vote for a terrorist organization. You really have a hard time with your freedom agenda if the people freely chose a terrorist organization.

President Obama in 2009 called for more freedom in Egypt and today we’re seeing the people step up and demand it. In 2005 President Bush made the same call and Egyptians responded by electing the largest number of Muslim Brother Candidates ever. President Mubarak learned from that election and rigged the next one to ensure he got 88% of the vote and that the Brotherhood only elected a handful of candidates.
While I believe that the peoples of the Middle East can prosper in a democracy it is certainly not going to be in a Western style democracy so we need to work behind the scenes to help improve people’s lot in life, not in public, for out of protest the most frequent result in Africa and the Middle East is chaos followed by brutal repressive regimes that make the past injustices look mild not to mention these regimes are often thrilled to thumb their nose at the US and Israel thus destabilizing the region.

Should President Obama make the wrong choices in the next 96 hrs and even hint publically or to the wrong people privately that he’s considering suspending aid we’ll see protests like never before and violence beyond anything to date and the result will not be a more peaceful and stable Egypt that remains indifferent to Israel but a country ripe for Al Qaeda and it’s cousin the Muslim Brotherhood and then folks we’ll really see what happens when a US President gets idealistic in the Middle East.

A Classy Exit

By T. Lee Humphrey

Former President George W. Bush spent the last few weeks hitting the talk show circuit and giving interviews to all the major networks and cable stations promoting his book Executive Decisions. He’d given a few speeches since leaving office as well, including one in Calgary, Canada my hometown that I was fortunate to attend at his invitation as a reward for my work at the US Embassy in Kabul from 2005 to 2006. The speech happened in March 2009 and was billed as his first formal speech after leaving the White House in January. He didn’t speak at all about his thoughts on the President Obama or his policies and it would appear that regardless of the recent attempts of the likes of Oprah or O’Reilly or anybody else he’s still not willing to talk about the current policies of the Obama administration or even about the current administrations never ending attempts to blame him for all the countries ills after almost 2 yrs under Obama and 5 yrs of a Democratic Congress running the show. President Bush’s appearances got me to thinking about other past Presidents and what they’ve done after leaving office and more specifically how they’ve treated their successors.

I became aware of US politics at a fairly young age mainly because my mother was an avowed left winger on most social issues but a very strong conservative on justice and foreign affairs as well as being somewhat of a compassionate fiscal hawk so while she was never fully happy with either Canadian or US parties she did tend to be what has come to be known as a Blue Dog Democrat and she also understood the link between our countries and taught me that the policies and government of the US had a profound impact on Canada’s economy so I should pay attention which I’ve tried to do. Based on my introduction to politics I’ll start with Richard Nixon who was overwhelmingly re-elected in 1972 only to be impeached a couple of years later.

Richard Nixon to the best of my knowledge and research never spoke about Gerald Ford’s administration and only went on the record a few times after leaving office most famously in the Frost-Nixon Interviews when he attempted to resurrect his imagine and defend his actions as it related to the Watergate Affair after which he really was never heard of publically again.

Gerald Ford like Nixon went quietly into the night after the election of Jimmy Carter in 1976 as did Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush with only President’s Carter and Clinton going after sitting Presidents. It would appear that a trend is happening. We have two Democrats that remain in the yappy column and 5 former Republican Presidents remaining silent.

I wonder why that would be, it’s not like Republicans are any less shy about attacking the opposition but it would appear at first blush that Republican Presidents are more likely in the last 36 yrs or so to better respect the office holders that succeed them. I mean you can understand why Reagan didn’t have anything negative to say about his former Vice President but he sure could have made headlines in 1993-4 by slamming President Clinton and his attempts to bring in Hillarycare yet he didn’t, nor did Bush the elder.

Yet President Carter just couldn’t resist getting involved and speaking out against President GW Bush at every opportunity and to be completely fair he was even willing to take a few swipes at President Clinton for fun too. He continues to interject himself and is more than willing to give President Obama a headache or too by continuing to mess around in North Korea even though his incompetence set us on the current course after the North struck a deal with him in 1994 and he convinced President Clinton that the North would honor the agreement but as we now know they didn’t and his ignorance allowed them to construct a plutonium enrichment facility while President Clinton was trying to figure out the definition of the word “if” and wondering if the “blue dress” was really going to lead to the first President to be impeached over an affair with an intern. As recently as this past week, President Carter couldn’t help but point out that only he along with his Chinese friends could resolve the North Korean problem.

President Clinton actually fared well and really tempered his comments regarding President GW Bush until Senator Clinton decided that she wanted to become POTUS too and then he was all about slamming the Bush administration as frequently as he could get a hold of a microphone.

While I’m not willing to give President Clinton a complete pass I can see that he attempted to honor tradition and not comment on the administration that succeeded him until he needed to help his wife and any husband worth his salt will go to the matt for the woman who stuck with him after he got caught cheating publically for the umpteenth time so I can understand why he broke the code but President Carter is another story. I’ve written about him a few times and every time my conclusion is the same, not only was he the worst President in every category (foreign and domestic policy) in the last half of the 20th century he was most likely the second worst President in US history and to make matters worse he’s gone on after his Presidency to screw up the two major assignments he took on in Haiti and North Korea and therefore I think his never ending efforts to stick his nose into other administrations is an ongoing attempt to gain a respect he’ll never achieve with the American public.

Had President Carter stuck with Habitat for Humanity as his post Presidential effort I’m guessing that his time in office and all the terrible decisions we’re still suffering with like OPEC and Iran would have been forgotten and he would be remembered as the President with a good heart who helped people get a fresh start which is a very noble and wonderful thing but instead he continues to seek the limelight and point out the failings of every President that has come after him.

Is it a trend that Democratic Presidents don’t follow the code that says there’s only one President at a time and after your turn is up you need to hush up...well two is hardly a trend and President Clinton only seems to make comments in support of his wife so no I don’t think there’s a trend but I do think President Jimmy Carter should heed my advice when I wrote “Dear Jimmy” at the end of September and if not my advice that of General MacArthur when he suggested that old soldiers simply fade away. President Carter needs to fade away for the sake of President Obama and for America and I hope President Obama when his time comes in 2 or 6 yrs will follow President GW Bush’s classy exit and not President Carters.

The Chinese Puppet Roars

By T. Lee Humphrey

At the end of Oct 2006 I published a piece on North Korea entitled “The North Korean Standoff” (http://howdidwegetherenow.blogspot.com/2006_10_01_archive.html) after they’d attempted to test a 3-stage rocket in July 2006 and failed and then attempted their first nuclear weapons test and again failed but signalled their move towards entering the nuclear weapons club and certainly confirmed that they’d manufactured enough weapons grade plutonium to move forward with a test program and eventually a production program.

The focus of the piece really was some background on North Korea and the attempts by both President’s Clinton and Bush to thwart the efforts of the North to move down this path. Both President’s tried carrots and sticks with Clinton offering up more carrots than sticks which resulted in the North promising not to develop weapons and doing so the minute ex-President Jimmy Carter left and Clinton was looking the other way. President Bush, once he realized that the US had been duped only really used sticks until it was obvious that the North had sufficient plutonium and were just a few years away from an operational delivery system. It was at this point that Bush agreed to the 6-party talks, which did nothing to deter the North from continuing to develop their weapons and delivery systems while also building a uranium producing plant too. The attempts to use UN sanctions to stop this effort and the 6-party talks have amounted to absolutely nothing.

In my earlier piece I suggested that in 2008-2009 the West would be at a tipping point and have to choose whether or not to pre-emptively attack North Korea or accept that they will have achieved the capability to deploy nuclear tipped missiles capable of striking our allies in the hemisphere. Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia will immediately become more vulnerable while Hawaii may also be in range.

Thankfully President Bush spent the money necessary to develop our anti-missile defense system and deployed it and even with President Obama’s tinkering to appease Russia would most probably be able to shoot down any missiles launched by the North as they most likely at this stage only have 6-8 warheads capable of fitting onto a 3-stage missile but each year that they are able to continue to develop missiles and warheads moves us to a stage whereby one or two may make it through any defensive screen to their targets. The North will continue to refine plutonium and now uranium and will continue to further develop its nuclear weapons and delivery system program regardless of the efforts by the west or the UN so this begs the question where are they getting the material support and money from? They have nothing of value to sell, they have no natural resources to speak of yet they’ve managed to build a high tech plant to refine uranium with some 2,000 centrifuges all the while maintaining a hardened plutonium refining plant and a missile production facility while maintaining a huge standing conventional army, airforce and navy.

I’m going to take a wild guess here and suggest that all that money China has been collecting in interest on US debt may be finding its way into the hands of their North Korean friends and allies not to mention large amount of equipment and resources. If you look at the North Korean conventional military forces they are using a combination of Russian and Chinese weapons...how exactly did they pay for this equipment? No oil or minerals to speak of, a starving population and UN sanctions up the hoop yet North Korea is expanding its nuclear weapons capability and now lobbing hundreds of artillery shells at our friend, after getting away with sinking one of its naval vessels last spring and the best we can do is sternly warn the North that if they do it again we’ll act? Really, this is the best we’ve got...do it again and we’ll do something about it, after all they’ve done in the past four years to thumb their collective noses at the West and the US with a wink and a nod from the Chinese not to mention the pain they’ve inflicted on several dozen South Korean military families and civilians. And let’s not get too excited about the dispatching of the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to participate in naval exercises because that’s exactly what was done after the sinking of the South Korean naval vessel in the spring...really dissuaded the North from acting again didn’t it.

While the Chinese massively rearm and develop an aircraft carrier fleet as well as an amphibious capability I’m thinking they are testing Americas resolve to really respond to a friend in need in advance of their goal of taking Taiwan back, by force if necessary. I last wrote about their efforts to do just that in Aug 2007 in a piece entitled “The Next Conflict” (http://howdidwegetherenow.blogspot.com/2007_08_01_archive.html)

I can only hope I’m out to lunch with all this forecasted conspiracy talk but while my timelines might be off somewhat I’m starting to think my premise is correct, although I never put the two actions together until today. The Chinese will be the next great superpower but to do so they must ensure the US will not stand in their way and there’s no easier way to test the resolve in ones enemy without exposing yourself than to set up a similar situation and study Americas actions or inactions and then apply the lessons learned. The Chinese just happen to have a dying lunatic on speed dial to help them with their goals.

Is America and President Obama prepared to act? Is the President of South Korea prepared to suffer thousands of casualties to allow the regime in the North to be overthrown by force or is he content to be bled until America fully deserts him? Time will tell but I’m guessing no and hell no so the people of Taiwan should recognize that if the US isn’t willing to support South Korea they are most definitely on their own when the Chinese coming knocking.